| In this book, the author examines the
foreign policy options taken by the Philippines in managing its claim
in the South China Sea dispute. The author argues that what emerges
is a dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy decisions following
the discovery of Chinese military structures on Mischief Reef.
The arguments presented in the study suggest that a careful analysis
of Philippine strategy will yield the following conclusions.
First, while the Philippines has used diplomacy as an initial avenue
to settle the dispute, it is clear that this option has paid little
dividend.
Second, the reginal response to the Mischief Reef cas has revealed
sharp divisions within ASEAN. ASEAN solidarity on the dispute is
fragile and cracks are beginning to show. The hope of the Philippines
that a perceived threat from China could engender greater ASEAN
unity has been unrealsitic.
Finally, as a direct consequence to the ineffectiveness of diplomatic
initiatives, the Philippines is increasingly looking towards restoring
defence cooperation with the United States as a way of checking
Chinese moves in the South China Sea.The Philippines has ratified
a Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States in 1999, a necessary
step for the restoration of bilateral military alliance. A strong
U.S. naval presence in the background is definitely a strong stopgap
until such a time the Philippines develops its military capability
and economic strength to deter aggressors. The Mischief crisis has
also caused the Philippines to embark on a modernization programme
for its armed forces to produce a better-equipped military for its
external defence.
In this study, the author also points out that "the Philippines
is trying to "internationalise" the issue ass much as
it can, possibly with the quiet support of Vietnam. If Maila can
keep the issue on the headlines and if ASEAN can get its act together,
Beijing, which has all along opposed multilateral talks on the Spratlys
issue, may have to concede. Bilateral discussions such as those
between the Philippines and China do not apppear to have resulted
in any concrete results so far. It is evident that only a united
ASEAN can possibly move China, as in 1995."
collected in spratlys.org on 19 July, 2003
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Spratlys - Nansha Islands (Spratly Islands) of China